Kartoffeln Cockpit, 22.02.2019

Despite this shortage, the April 19 futures on processed potatoes are traded on the futures exchange at prices that are only 20 cents above the current cash market. The April date is 31.3 today, while the market hour was calculated on Thursday at 31.1 € / dt. In the past week, the stock market price rose by more than one euro / 100 kg. Due to the very early spring, farmers and stockholders were again more interested in price hedging against falling prices. Although planting in the West is already beginning on a large scale and at a very early stage, the figures on the Belgian potato stocks of the Fiwap in Wallonia and the PCA in Flan-dern recently dominated the discussion among market participants. The fact that there are only very small stocks of the previously dominant variety Bintje, which are usually grown without a contract, is probably because that camp-critical games were processed in the autumn preferred. These included many Bintje games. Meanwhile, the qualities of the camp potatoes are described as very good. It seems that all problem lots have been recycled for processing.The AMI writes that the stocks and the processing quantities from the 2018 harvest alone do not allow conclusions about the actual supply situation. One has to keep in mind that large quantities were still processed in summer from the huge harvest of the previous year. Thus, at the beginning of the marketing season there were high initial stocks of potato products in the factories' TK warehouses. The large increases in the export of french fries from the EU are also impressive proof of this. Looking at the sales period from 1 February to the end of the season, Belgian factories can still have more than 1.8 million tonnes of raw material. Last year it was 2.9 million tons, which was an extraordinary amount and from which the product stocks just mentioned were produced. In "normal years" such as 2016/17 and 2015/16, 2.1 million tonnes of raw materials were processed in Belgium after 1 February. Even in the 2014/15 marketing year with a large crop in 2014, it was only 2.4 million tonnes. As of February 1, raw material availability was still 1.8 million tons in 2013/14, just like this season, compared to just 1.2 million tons in the previous year. One should not use the term "historical" so lightly.Now begins a phase in the marketing of potatoes and potato products, which will show whether the high prices of potatoes lead to a change in consumer behavior. Already in December, it became apparent that foreign trade is becoming smaller. The export of fresh potatoes from Germany as well as most potato products has been restricted. Not even half as many potatoes were sold to factories in Belgium and the Netherlands. In the meantime 55% more table potatoes from France come to us compared to the previous year. There were also more imports from countries such as Denmark and Poland. But that is a total of small amounts. It shows, however, that high prices attracts goods. It can not be denied that the market supply of potatoes is still scarce. The market laws work but especially in a extreme year like this. Opposing power games are becoming ever clearer. The British PotatoCall reports today that holders of high-quality potatoes charge higher prices and offer virtually nothing, while less appealing merchandise is still pushing the market and sometimes even looking for buyers.