The signs for rapeseed were red in Paris yesterday. The month in front recorded a loss of 4.75 euros / ton to 529.75 euros / ton. In France, winter rape production is expected to be 2.95 million tons. This means that the forecast is just under 32% below the multi-year average. The main reason for the significant decline is the declining acreage. In Canada, bullish sentiment in canola futures was dampened by heavy rainfall after the prevailing drought kept feeding the bulls. The expected rainfall has not been as productive as hoped and has given the courses further support. After volatile trading, the Soy Complex closed trading in Chicago at a loss. Both the closing stocks for the USA and worldwide were above the expectations of the dealers and caused a subdued mood. The forecast for soy production was updated largely unchanged. Soy processing has been revised down to 400,000 tons. Market participants continue to focus on the weather.While it is clearly too warm and dry, especially in the northern areas, growers in the south are struggling with areas that are too wet. The USDA analysts rated 67% of soybean stocks as good to excellent. The result was thus below the general market opinion of 79%. The sowing is almost complete with almost 90%. In Brazil, the experts from Safras and Mercado are forecasting oilseed exports of 86 million tons in 2021. This corresponds to an increase of 3 million tons compared to the previous year. The Brazilian harvest is rated better by the local agricultural authority with a minimum of 137 million tons, despite the difficult growing conditions.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The rapeseed prices seem to take the small setbacks well again and again and are showing an upward trend. Smaller cultivation areas give the courses support. Even if the oil mills are currently well served, the fear of supply shortages is creating a bullish mood. On the soy market, the higher stocks have temporarily slowed the increase. At the same time, market participants are anticipating weaker processing, which could put additional pressure on the oil crop.