Ölsaaten Cockpit, 04.10.2019

From the soaring prices for soybeans in Chicago, rape prices in Paris are completely unimpressed. While US prices posted an increase of around 4%, rapeseed ended yesterday's trading day at EUR 386 / t, unchanged from the previous week. The rapeseed market is currently bullish. For example, in Canada last weekend heavy snow and rainfall caused rapeseed delays. It should have been particularly violent in Alberta, but cold and damp stir up concerns in Manitoba and Saskatchewan about crop delays and quality reductions. Also clouded are the forecasts for Australia, where drought is adding to the field so that a below-average harvest is likely to come together. In addition to Ukraine and Canada, Australia is an important rapeseed supplier to the EU, but supply opportunities could be limited in 2019/20, which could be due not only to the expected weak harvest but also to competing demand from China. Since the Middle Kingdom is still in the trade dispute with the US and therefore only sporadically buys soybeans from there, alternatives are sought.In addition to soybeans and meal from South America, the Chinese also focus more on rape from the Black Sea and Australia. But so far, the demand competition is not yet noticeable, for weeks, huge quantities of rapeseed from Ukraine fill the gaps in the EU supply. Overall, in the first 3 months of the 2019/20 marketing year, the Community has already received 1.9 million t of rapeseed from third countries, twice as much as in the previous year. 81% came from the Ukraine. Most likely, the large supply from there covers the EU rape courses.