Ölsaaten Cockpit, 08.03.2019

Since the beginning of February, the Rapsterminkurse on the stock exchange in Paris are under pressure. In the past four weeks they have lost about 5% in value. Most recently, they closed at 353 EUR / t, which corresponds to a weekly decline of 4.50 EUR / t. Compared to the previous day, however, it is a plus of 1.50 EUR / t, but market participants do not believe that the downturn has come to an end and expect further price falls in the coming trading days. Finally, the demand of compound feed producers for rapeseed meal is low and there is no support from the vegetable oil market either. Rapeseed oil prices are under pressure, oil mills complain about low demand and weak revenue from rapeseed oil sales, because the biodiesel market is already switching from winter to summer goods. SME and PME deliveries are already in the starting blocks, and from mid-April the summer goods offer will dominate the market for the next six months and put rape-based biodiesel on the sidelines. Reason for the recent daily profit are the latest cultivation and harvest data of the European Commission. She has now published her first forecast for the 2019 harvest. For rapeseed, the Commission expects usable production of 19.88 milliont in the financial year 2019/20, which would be barely more than the 19.86 million t of the previous year. Land reductions, but better yields are expected to more or less offset each other. However, nothing is decided yet and to enjoy this first, early estimate with caution. The decisive spring is still to come. Even if the weather conditions were favorable so far, the rapeseed crops lack the necessary winter hardiness in many places. Frost could change everything. Although the spring is approaching, last year there was still a cold snap at the end of April and temperatures had fallen below freezing.