Cautiously grooving oil seed price development - waiting for new USDA facts The two market leaders soya and palm oil in the oilseed market develop a different course dynamics . The soyotries have moved out of the bottom of the valley during the month of September with forward and backward movements and are now facing a further reasonable development. Although the US soya harvest is being delayed by unfavorable conditions, the estimates are growing that yields can be above-average . This could lead to a record result of more than 120 million tonnes estimated so far.On the other hand, the demand for soybeans is still on the rise, so that a price pressure which is to be feared could be avoided. Even the current price increase in the middle of the harvest is unusual. In the background also the critical sowing conditions for soy in South America are affected . The high rainfall in Argentina is just as severe as the drought in some parts of Brazil. But the prospects should be better. In the case of palm oil , the Malaysian stocks increased to more than 2 million tonnes. The production in the Sept surprisingly was lower than in August. Several Islamic holidays have led to the temporary suspension of harvesting. Typically, harvesting increases continuously into the Oct of each year. However, it is expected that a lagging effect could occur both in Oct and in Nov. Palm oil prices are recorded on a medium level. The rap prices in Paris have not gone beyond the € 370 / t mark for months, although the crude oil price on the average has positive signals. The latest estimate by the European Commission for 2016/17 of 22 million tonnes has led to an improvement in the EU supply situation for rape. Despite increased consumption, only 3.5 million tonnes of imports are predicted. However, the uncertainty about EU import duties on biodiesel is likely to be decisive. Rapeseeders remain cautious.From the new USDA estimate hoped to develop new directional key data. (Supplement follows after publication)
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
An above-average supply situation with the market leader Soja is generally reflected in the oilseed sector. In the United States, one expects another reporter. However, crop and cultivation practices prevent a further drop in prices in this sector. A comparatively stable crude oil price on an elevated level supports the price level. The next harvest of palm oil could contribute to higher supply volumes and increase the already high stock level. For the rap prices the uncertainties caused by the import duties on biodiesel are decisive. So far, the Niveua of 370 € t had a resistance line.
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