(AMI) - The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its latest assessment of the international market supply of oilseeds. There have been some corrections for soybeans. Soybean stocks at the beginning of the 2018/19 marketing year were up 2% on the September estimate, so that the 69.7 million tonnes of stocks at the start of the season were now at almost the same level as in the previous year. But not only the inventories are more comprehensive than expected, the crop estimates have the US analysts slightly raised and put the global soybean production now at 369.5 million t. This result would exceed the previous year by 9.5%. At national level, the most notable correction has been made for Canada, where 7.5 million tonnes are expected to be around 0.5 million tonnes more than in September, although still less than the previous 7.72 million tonnes , If the global consumption estimate remains unchanged, the corrections to the initial stocks and production in 2018/19 are also reflected in the forecast for international soybean supply at the end of the season.The estimate of year-end inventories was increased by 1.6% to 110 million tonnes compared to the previous month. The inventories would be almost 14% larger than at the end of the preseason and would mean a record high supply for the start of the season 2019/20. For rape, USDA market analysts have made a slight correction to global 2018/19 production. They currently estimate them to be 72.1 million tonnes, 0.6% above the September estimate. The previous year's result would thus be missed by only 4%. The main reason for the lower global production of rapeseed compared to the 2017/18 marketing year is the drought-related loss of crops across much of the EU-28, but the Chinese and Canadians also produce less. The correction of the global rapeseed harvest forecast is also reflected in the forecast for rapeseed stocks at the end of the financial year 2018/19. At 6.2 million tonnes, around 2.7% more is expected than in September. The gap with the previous year would therefore decrease to 8.7%.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
(AMI) - Global soybean production in 2018/19 is likely to be large and inventories will rise. In the US, the record harvest of over 127 million tonnes could come together. But where to go with all the soy? China has broken away from the US as a top buyer. On the other hand, South America now has trouble meeting China's big soybean hunger.
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