30.
10.14
Stable pork prices with partial improvement expectations

Schweine Cockpit, 30.10.2014

  • Some demand improvement in sections and regions
  • slightly declining numbers of battle
  • Pork supply on a high level
  • Drittlandsabstz remains insufficient

Battle pork market Germany

2014

44/45 KW

Thu until MI

43./44.KW

Thu until MI

42/43 KW

Thu until MI

41/42 KW

Thu until MI

40/41 KW

Thu until MI

39/40 KW

Thu until MI

38/39 KW

Thu until MI

37/38 KW

Thu until MI

36/37 KW

Thu until MI

35/36 KW

Thu until MI

V. price (€ / kg)

1.40

1.40

1.40

1.40

1.40

1.46

1.50

1.60

1.65

1.65

Advanced reservations(Units)

234.500

242.000

238.500

250,000

252,000

251.522

256.804

246.400

233.400

227.700

ISN-Internet auctions (Tue - Fri)

Fr.7.10 Di,4.10.

FR,31.10 - di, 28.10

Fr24.10. - Di21.10

Di14.10 Fr.10.10

Di7.10. - Fr,03.10

Di,30.09-Fr,26.09

Di,23.09-Fr,19.09

Di,16.09

Di,09.09

Di 02.09

Average price (€/ kg)

1.45

1.46 1.45

1.44 1.43

eliminates 1.43

1.44 1.48

1.53 1.54

1.54

1.66

1.68

Supernatant in %

30.4%

4%

14% - 44%

40% 41% 11% 19.5%

85.8% (!)

3.2%

10.3%

Unmodified pig prices for 44/45 KW (do, 27.10 up MI, 05.Nov.)

The ISN Internet Exchange on Tue, Oct. 28, 2014 has led to an average price of € 1.45 / kg (-1 ct / kg compared to the Friday auction) at a range of 1.43 to €1.465 / kg. 30.6% were not sold by the 2,680 offered pigs.

General market and prices:

The battle figures in Germany NL, B/L and DK remain high on toned down. The range numbers in the lower average move in Italy and France. Spain is struggling still with the holiday time when weak international business. The Spanish pig prices have fallen since September 2014 to €0.50 / kg. Industrial processing runs on before Christmas course and orders more and more goods at low prices. Offering fresh meat remains closely aligned with the sales limits of the domestic and international operations. Partial upward trends are a requirement as a whole depending on the sections and regions.

Current market situation in major production areas:

Denmark:Danish pig prices were in the 44th KW unchanged. The slaughter numbers have rebounded, though, remain with - 2.2% behind the previous year's return. For the upcoming 45 KW (3-07.Nov.) the base price will be...

In France/Brittany were small Monday market (27.10) -0.5 ct / kg despite unusual offer amounts paid. At the Thursday market 30 Oct. 14) were -ct/kg paid. (Addendum). The reported battle in whole France figures back in the midfield.

The Dutch battle company have in the 44th KW set to 0 to + 1 ct / kg. The battle figures are the average of the last few weeks. Should the prices for the 45 KW (addendum follows) Belgium: pork prices in the 44th KW have been slightly decreasing offer amounts raised to + 1 ct / kg. The battle figures in the good average level. The quotes of the battle company of the 45th KW ct/kg . (Addendum to follow)

Germany: The reported battle figures of last week having rd. 1.057.657 (last week 1.069.640, before last week 1.077.224) piece somewhat given up but remain at a high level. Eligible for the period of Thursday 30.10 up Wednesday 03.Nov. (44/45 KW)the Association price €1.40 per kg or index point was unchanged.  The range from 1.40 to €1.43 / kg. The announced delivery quantities of next week move with 234.500 (previous week 242.000) piece is still in the upper midfield.

In Austria applicable porkers base price for the 43rd/44th KW has been retained unchanged. The listing for the upcoming 44th/45th KW is the price + 3 ct / kg been raised (a rare deviation from the German listing requirements).

The pig prices in Spain (30.Okt. 2014) - ct/kg (addendum follows are).

In (upper)Italy pork prices in the 44th KW were in Modena on Monday (27.10) to + 3.8 ct / kg increase.On Tuesday (28.10) was in Reggio Emilia + 3.2 ct / kg noted.  On the Wed, 10/29, + 3 ct / kg was recorded in Cremona. The reported slaughter numbers move further to below-average 42.621 piece.

Views: The pressure eased. The reservations have eased, but still high. Increasing demand for processing goods before Christmas business. Further price declines are initially not expected, price increases are expected, but not sure.

The US the Lean hogs Futures Quotes arrive at €1.50 per kg, where distortions with it brings the changing of the euro. The fallen weekly PEDv cases represent a relatively low initial hazard. However, the upcoming cold season means a not inconsiderable infectious and spreading risk. For 2015 , the + 5% USDA estimates more U.S. pork production.

Chinese pork prices record with €2.45 per kg back in the average range. The sow - and pig go back significantly. For the new year 2015 predicts the USDA Chinese pork imports increased to 1.36 million tonnes or  +17 %.

Russian pig prices are again on the level of €3.40 / kg SG. The smuggling of import of EU goods is hard to stop. However, the total quantities of manageable size move.

Brazilian pork prices exceeding the level equivalent €2 / kg, due to the demand for Russia partly but also exchange rates. Falling feed costs, the Brazilians expect a big business in the pig sector, export is expected to increase by 20% by 2015 to 700,000 tonnes.

Stable pork prices with partial improvement expectations
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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The sales market is restricted by the Russian import lock coped with the pork supply now stable but low level. When a sufficient requirement as a whole, small cover gaps in certain sections and in individual regions. The courses attract in BL, NL, Austria and Italy. The prospect of increasing listing in Germany grows though, is still on shaky legs. The first Christmas is a helpful support. However, soaring price expectations are misplaced.

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