Grain markets are starting to recover

Getreide News, 03/22/2024

  • increasing international demand
  • increasing prices in Russia
  • lower harvest estimate coming harvest
  • Sowing progress in Brazil
  • Export competition from Russia
  • Delivery capability Ukraine
  • wait-and-see purchasing behavior in the compound feed industry
Spot markets at a glance Euro/ton
Bread wheat Feb 22 March 29th March 7th March 14th March 22nd +/-
Hamburg 206.00 205.00 200.00 204.00 207.00 3.00
Lower Rhine 203.00 202.00 197.00 201.00 204.00 3.00
Upper Rhine 196.00 195.00 190.00 194.00 198.00 4.00
East Germany 190.00 189.00 184.00 188.00 191.00 3.00
feed wheat
Hamburg 204.00 203.00 198.00 202.00 205.00 3.00
Oldenburg 194.00 193.00 188.00 192.00 195.00 3.00
feed barley
Hamburg 174.00 173.00 168.00 170.00 173.00 3.00
East Germany 149.00 148.00 143.00 145.00 148.00 3.00
Grain corn
South Oldenburg 185.00 185.00 180.00 184.00 187.00 3.00

Price levels on Euronext/Matif rose over the course of the week. However, the prices were unable to maintain the mark of 200 euros/t in the front month of May, which had now been slightly exceeded. Yesterday evening the front month closed at 199.75 euros/t, 4.75 euros higher than on Friday of the previous week. Corn also rose noticeably over the course of the week. The reference contract closed yesterday at 189.25 euros/t, up 7.50 euros per ton northward. The development on the CBoT was similar, although the corn contracts increased less significantly and remained in a sideways movement, especially in the middle of the week. The local cash markets are also showing slightly firmer trends for grain overall. The news situation is driven by several factors. Although export competition from the Black Sea remains, export prices in Russia have recently become slightly higher again. In addition, providers from Romania and Bulgaria were able to prevail in the most recent tender from Egypt. In Europe in particular, the latest estimate from the Coceral industry association also shaped market developments. The association expects a higher grain harvest in the EU, but less wheat is likely to be harvested. This is estimated at 123 million tonnes (previous year: 126 million tonnes). That is another 2.5 million tons less than Coceral expected in December. The correction is justified on the one hand by the weather influences but also by a significantly smaller cultivated area. With the exception of Romania, this is lower in many important producing countries such as Poland, France and Germany. The barley area is likely to increase compared to the previous year and Coceral is also expecting a higher harvest volume of 53 million tonnes (previous year 49 million tonnes). Maize sowing is also expected to increase from 8.5 million hectares last year to 8.7 million hectares. With average expected yields per hectare of 7.7 t/ha, this would mean a harvest of 64.5 million tons and at the same time increase the previous year's result Exceed 2 million tonnes. US corn exports, like wheat exports, were somewhat friendlier again. However, demand for wheat in particular remains below average. Ethanol production has also increased and inventories have increased. In Brazil, the first corn harvest is almost complete and the second corn sowing is making rapid progress. However, heavy rainfall in Argentina and parts of Brazil is causing uncertainty regarding the qualities. Flooding is possible regionally.

Grain markets are starting to recover
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The grain markets have again taken on an upward trend. The past week shows that the 200 euro mark for wheat and the 550 US cents/bu mark for CBoT wheat are stubborn hurdles.

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