If potato growers can continue their field work so quickly, price weaknesses are no longer ruled out in the raw material market. The market for processing raw materials is already developing into a weather market. The actual acreage at the summer harvest could also be price-effective on the market. There is sufficient speculation about the actual availability of seedlings, but no one dares to make a reliable statement about them. The reluctance of buyers in the local market is understandable in this respect. Nevertheless, Belgian fry factories in particular need additional raw material and are looking for it in more remote regions, such as the UK. However, these tactical games are not yet able to suppress prices on the free market. The supply gap is too big, but it will only be noticeable on the market in a few weeks, when there is really no more raw material and the product stocks are running out. Only then will it become clear whether the fries from the expensive and scarce raw material of this season will also find their way to the end consumer at higher prices.In the meantime, competition among buyers remains high, which benefits French exporters in particular. France had a comparatively large potato harvest of around 6 million tonnes, which will be sold extremely quickly this week. At the end of January, only 1.75 million tons of consumer potatoes were left in the farmers' barns. This is the lowest value in 10 years. Above all, Belgium bought processing raw material for its underserved fry pubs. In January, French warehouse keepers sold 730,000 tonnes of consumer potatoes, more than ever before in a month. Now French French stocks of processing potatoes are so low that, even in France, supplies are unlikely to reach the end of the season. In summer there are hardly any leftovers from the last harvest. In contrast, last year's sale lasted until September. Since despite all the efforts of the factories to avert a supply gap, seems hopeless, the price level can currently hold up well. But there is also no market imagination for rising prices. The index on processed potatoes of the Leipzig Derivatives Exchange EEX remained at € 31 / dt this week.All four country ratings remained virtually unchanged from the previous week. This means that the prices on the futures exchange on the settlement date April-19 are almost identical. For the June 19 futures contract, the brokers are trading the potatoes at around € 2 / dd. And for the summer months, there is no way of price hedging on the stock market. Only after the end of the main harvest 2019 futures contracts are offered again. The April 20 date, with its prices of around 16 € / dt, does not differ significantly from previous years. The exciting time in the spring to fall of 2019, the market must survive even without the hedging instrument on the stock market. In return, the factories offer extensive preliminary contracts. However, the large price difference on the derivatives exchange from now to one year shows that the market expects a price slump sometime in the summer. When that will be, but also depends on how the weather develops in the coming weeks.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
In mainland Europe, many more varieties of processing have already been planted than in previous years at this date. This provides more serenity among the buyers. Nevertheless, in the current market, the high prices can hold their own, similar to the weeks before. While the fries outlets in the EU mainland have little interest in free potatoes from the local market, but they cover themselves with raw material from the British island. The farmers on the island are preparing for a possible disorderly Brexit. For Maris Piper for processing in Belgium they receive 23,40 € / dt. British fry producers are completely out of the open market.
You see historical data because you're not logged in or not a ZMP Live+ member. Get your information advantage now!
